Separate whether demand may occur from how much may follow.
Keep occurrence, quantity and horizon uncertainty available for planner review.
Polaris with Aurora
Forecast demand without hiding the uncertainty a planner must absorb.
Review model-generated demand ranges, calendar and availability context, route explanations and guarded fallbacks before a forecast becomes planning evidence.
Where it helps
Demand signals that deserve more than one number.
Start with the situations where forecast uncertainty changes an inventory, service or capacity decision.
Avoid silently treating every recorded sale as complete demand.
Use supplied availability or stockout context when the evidence is available and governed.
Keep daily, anchored-weekly and monthly meaning explicit.
Ambiguous calendar structure fails closed instead of being quietly reinterpreted.
Planner workflow
From data context to a reviewable forecast route.
Check the evidence before modeling.
Review cadence, history depth, missing context and the declared planning horizon.
Produce a range and keep the route visible.
Polaris exposes the model route, explanation and guarded statistical safeguard when required.
Protect the baseline until a challenger earns promotion.
Exceptions, scenarios and overrides remain attributable instead of replacing planner judgment.
Evidence boundaryMechanism checks are not customer outcomes.
Aurora’s focused adapter checks pass, but its matched public comparison did not earn promotion over the retained route. Operational quality, calibration and business value require an eligible design-partner evaluation.
Test one demand-planning question.
Define the current method, product scope, horizon and success measure before sharing any data.